The current crisis in Sudan traces its roots to the dramatic breakdown of relations between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). In April 2023 the RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (commonly known as “Hemedti”), attempted to assert its dominance over the national military, plunging the country into open conflict. What began as a power struggle swiftly morphed into a full-scale civil war across Khartoum, Darfur, Kordofan and other regions.
Several factors set the stage for the current horror:
- The RSF’s origins in the Janjaweed militias of Darfur means the group already had a track-record of ethnic violence and an established armed infrastructure.
- A severely weakened government, economic collapse and mass internal displacement created a chaotic environment ripe for atrocity.
- Aid and humanitarian access had been eroding for months; by the time of the recent outbreak of mass killings aid groups were already warning of wholesale catastrophe.
- Regional actors and international arms supply further fuelled the violence, as the RSF widened its reach and the battlefield fragmented.
In essence, Sudan’s war wasn’t simply a military confrontation — it became a socio-political unraveling of the state, with the RSF increasingly operating like a de-facto actor over territory, civilians and resources.
The Massacres: A Brutal Turning Point
The Fall of El Fasher & the Mass Killings
The most shocking recent chapter occurred in late October 2025, when the RSF captured El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, following a prolonged siege of around 18 months. Within days, multiple credible sources—including satellite imagery and field interviews—revealed the scale of atrocities:
- The medical network in Sudan reported at least 1,500 civilians had been killed in the three days following takeover.
- Hospitals were directly targeted: The World Health Organization confirmed that 460 people were killed at the Saudi Maternity Hospital alone as RSF fighters allegedly executed patients, staff and those sheltering inside.
- Satellite and video evidence captured mass graves, large “blood-red” discolorations on the ground, vehicles patrolling over clusters of corpses, and videos of RSF fighters publicly bragging of killings.
- The assault exhibited patterns of ethnic targeting: numerous reports suggest Arab-dominated RSF forces carried out killings of non-Arab civilians, particularly from the Zaghawa and other African-identified groups.
- As civilians tried to flee, many were shot along escape routes, detained or disappeared. In one displaced-person camp, one in ten families reported missing children or parents.
Broader Context
These grotesque events are not isolated. The wider civil war has already driven more than 12 million people from their homes and caused at least 150,000 deaths by some estimates. The fall of El Fasher marks both a humanitarian catastrophe and a strategic shift: the RSF now holds effective control of much of Darfur, raising fears of further ethnic cleansing and even the de facto partition of Sudan.
The UN and many human-rights organisations have condemned the events as possible genocide.
What Happens Next? Possible Futures for Sudan
1. Intensification of mass-atrocity and displacement
With the RSF now holding major territory, we may see the logic of “control through terror” applied elsewhere: mass killings, forced displacement, looting of resources, and a collapse of civilian protection in vast regions. Aid access will remain extremely difficult, further worsening famine, disease and suffering.
2. Fragmentation of the state and/or rival de-facto regions
The collapse of the SAF’s presence in Darfur opens the door for a fractured Sudan — either in the form of semi-independent territories or warlord-style rule. In that scenario, the war becomes permanent and even harder to resolve.
3. International intervention or arms embargo
Major global pressure could force cease-fires, arms embargoes, or intervention (via the UN, African Union, or others). However, given regional complexity (UAE, Egypt, Russia, Saudi interests) and the RSF’s backing, meaningful action may be delayed or constrained.
4. A fragile negotiated settlement
Even amid horror, there remains a chance that the SAF, RSF and regional actors negotiate a power-sharing deal, cease-fires and transitional governance. But given the scale of abuse, any deal would need credible accountability mechanisms, and time is running out for that path.
5. A “Darfur redux” scenario
The violence in El Fasher echoes the early-2000s Darfur genocide. If un-checked, we could witness a full-blown humanitarian collapse, where the conflict spills into neighbouring states, creating refugee flows, cross-border arms flows and regional instability.
Lessons for Other Countries
The Sudan crisis should offer wake-up calls for states, civil society and global institutions:
- Unchecked power of paramilitaries is extremely dangerous. When a force like the RSF accumulates territory, resources and autonomy, it can rapidly turn into an alternative state actor unchecked by legal accountability.
- Sieges and starving of civilians prelude mass atrocities. The long siege of El Fasher created the conditions—famine, isolation, desperation—that preceded mass killing. States should treat sieges on civilians as red-flags.
- Arms flows & external funding matter. States and proxies that supply weapons to domestic actors can become complicit in atrocities. Foreign backers of militias encourage escalation.
- Ethnic-targeting violence often escalates rapidly. When a conflict becomes entangled with identity and discrimination, the risk of genocide rises sharply.
- Early warning systems and humanitarian access can’t wait. In Sudan, warnings were made but the global community was too slow. Building resilient monitoring and protection mechanisms is crucial.
- Displacement and refugee flows must be addressed proactively. When millions are displaced internally, this fuels instability, resource competition, and can spill into regional conflicts.
In Conclusion
Sudan stands at a tragic inflection point. The fall of El Fasher and the many atrocities committed there represent not just another battle in the civil war, but a broader collapse of civilian protection, governance and humanity. The coming weeks will test whether the world responds in time, whether Sudan fragments into violence, or whether a pathway to peace remains possible.
If you want regular updates and analysis on conflict-risk around the world—including our ongoing work at Conflict Meter please consider signing up for our newsletter. Stay informed, stay engaged.