France
France has a validated current Global FULL score and rank.
Green, amber and red are display colours only—not calibrated probability or methodological risk thresholds.
What is driving the reading
Substantial structural Pressure and recorded mobilisation combine to produce most of the headline. The key question is whether political participation helps address concerns or accompanies divisions that remain unresolved.
Pressure and Activation produce a base of 71.27; economic and narrative adjustments bring the Global reading to 71.89.
What to watch
Watch repeated measures of confidence and division alongside the persistence and conduct of participation. High peaceful participation can coexist with easing strain; the national totals do not identify which groups link the two.
Snapshot: 28 September 2026. Archived comparisons refer to the 2025 Vintage baseline and may include source or coverage revisions. How the index works.
How to read this country's ConflictMeter result
ConflictMeter measures how closely current conditions in a country align with the conditions that Professor David Betz argues make large-scale civil unrest and internal political conflict more likely. A higher score means stronger alignment with those conditions. It is not a percentage probability, a prediction that conflict will occur, or a forecast of when it might occur.
ConflictMeter is an independent operationalisation of Betz's published theories; the index itself is not produced or endorsed by Professor Betz.
Public score anatomy
France's current Global index is 71.89, ranked 13 of 81 FULL-coverage countries.
Public metric profile
A visual comparison of the six public 0–100 index measures for this country.
Deterministic interpretation
Activation is the highest available current top-level value.
Economic pressure is the lowest available current top-level value.
Three gated structural constructs
Public pages identify the constructs without publishing exact P1/P2/P3 values or underlying evidence.
Status reversal / demographic pressure
Status reversal and demographic pressure construct.
Factionalism
Factionalism and organised group-division construct.
Loss of faith
Loss-of-faith and institutional confidence construct.
Public component evidence
Pre-2025 values are component history only; no retrospective ConflictMeter headline score is inferred.
Activation
Vintage and Reconstructed
This chart shows the authorised historical Vintage observations available for public comparison. Reconstructed estimates are kept separate; missing observations are not filled from other datasets.
Score and rank movement
Revision sensitivity and exposure
Current Revision Sensitivity
Latest-year 2025 paired revision evidence.
LOW
Historical Revision Exposure
Paired revision evidence across 2021–2025.
MEDIUM
Freshness and provenance
Source-by-source freshness cannot be assessed from the current published dataset. Historical component points retain their recorded release dates and evidence age.
France Intelligence Report — £49
Understand the structural drivers, historical comparisons, alternative interpretations and evidence to watch in this country’s complete report.
SKU CM-RPT-FRA · ENHANCED_FULL