About ConflictMeter
A transparent index of internal-conflict conditions
ConflictMeter is an independent analytical project that operationalises Professor David Betz’s published civil-conflict theories into a measurable, comparable and inspectable country index. It asks how closely present conditions align with the conditions Betz argues make large-scale civil unrest and internal political conflict more likely.
It is not an AI prediction engine and it does not assign a probability that civil war will occur.
Why ConflictMeter exists
Many country-risk products collapse a large number of variables into an opaque score. ConflictMeter takes a narrower approach: define the conflict configuration first, make each component traceable, and expose the limits of the evidence rather than hiding them.
Theory before tuning
The active v13+ model operationalises a Betz-style configuration of status reversal, factionalism, loss of faith in normal politics and mobilisation. The production formula was selected by theory and robustness—not by forcing any country into a desired rank.
Transparency before completeness
If a country lacks an input, the value remains unavailable. ConflictMeter does not replace missing evidence with zero or a regional average simply to produce a prettier table.
Versioning before silent revision
Production snapshots, historical panels and report exports are versioned and hashed. When source datasets revise their own history, ConflictMeter keeps Vintage and Reconstructed views separate.
What the index measures
ConflictMeter measures alignment with conflict-associated conditions in the Betz framework. The current production model combines Structural Pressure, Activation, and bounded economic/narrative accelerants. A higher score means stronger alignment with those conditions; it is not a percentage probability or a prediction that conflict will occur.
Structural Pressure
Three pillars: Downgrading / Status Reversal, Factionalism, and Loss of Faith in Normal Politics.
Activation
General mass-mobilisation intensity and positive long-run change. High Activation is not the same thing as current political violence.
Accelerants
Economic stagnation and narrative fragmentation can increase the Base score modestly without replacing the core structure.
How to interpret a ConflictMeter score
A score of 76 does not mean a 76% chance of civil war. It means the country currently sits high on the index created by the frozen production formula and source universe.
Rank is relative
A country’s rank depends on the eligible comparison universe. ConflictMeter displays the universe size alongside rank and preserves changes such as 4/80 → 9/81.
Colour is presentation
The website’s green / amber / red score bands make tables easier to scan. They are visual conventions, not empirically calibrated probability thresholds.
Movement needs a valid baseline
Public headline movement begins with the authorised 2025 Vintage baseline. Earlier component history is shown where valid, but pre-2025 headline scores are not manufactured.
What ConflictMeter is — and is not
It is an analytical index
A structured way to compare measured conditions associated with a specific theory of internal political conflict.
It is a research platform
The dataset supports rankings, charts, country histories, source-revision studies and report generation.
It is not deterministic
Countries can remain elevated without escalating into violence, and conflict can occur for reasons not represented in this index. ConflictMeter is one analytical lens, not a claim of inevitability.
The project is independent. References to external researchers, institutions and source providers describe intellectual or data provenance and do not imply endorsement or institutional affiliation.
The ConflictMeter product
Public index
Country pages, rankings, current score anatomy, selected historical evidence, movement and public charts.
Country Intelligence Reports
Paid country-level briefings with exact structural components, deeper history, source diagnostics, peer context and provenance.
Pro & Organisations
Planned recurring workflow for comparisons, watchlists, alerts, exports and organisational delivery.
Inspect it yourself
The redesigned site is built so readers can move from a headline gauge to the formula, sources, historical method and underlying charts without taking the index on trust.