About The Civil War Risk Index
When people hear the term civil war, they often picture a familiar scene: two organized armies facing each other on a battlefield, clearly marked by uniforms, flags, and frontlines. While this traditional image may reflect some historical examples, it represents only a narrow slice of what civil war truly means in today’s complex world.
At ConflictMeter, we adopt a broader, more realistic definition of civil war—one that reflects the full spectrum of modern internal conflict. For the purposes of the Civil War Risk Index, a civil war refers to any sustained conflict involving two or more groups of active combatants who, at the start of the conflict, were governed by the same political authority.
This includes not only classic civil wars but also revolutions, large-scale uprisings, mass civil unrest, insurgencies, armed separatist movements, and urban guerilla warfare. These forms of conflict often lack clear frontlines or conventional armies, but they are no less consequential in terms of their human cost, social disruption, and political implications.
Whether it’s a grassroots rebellion sparked by economic hardship, a revolutionary movement challenging an entrenched regime, or a fragmented conflict between militias and government forces, each scenario falls within our scope. Our index is designed to reflect this broader understanding—because recognizing the early warning signs of all forms of internal conflict is essential for public awareness, academic analysis, and informed decision-making.
Interpreting the Risk Index: Not a Prediction, but a Warning Sign
It’s important to understand what the Civil War Risk Index does—and what it does not do. The Index does not predict that a civil war or violent conflict will happen. Rather, it measures when the underlying conditions are present that make such an event more likely.
A country may remain in a high risk category for months or even years without a conflict erupting. In some cases, tensions may ease or be addressed through reform and dialogue. In others, the situation may slowly deteriorate. The index simply reflects the convergence of warning signs—such as rising political polarization, loss of institutional trust, mass discontent, or breakdowns in governance—that historically tend to precede internal conflict.
Just as a weather forecast doesn’t guarantee rain but signals when conditions are right for a storm, the Civil War Risk Index serves as an early warning tool. Its purpose is to inform—not to alarm—so that individuals, researchers, and decision-makers can be more aware, better prepared, and more responsive to the signs of deepening instability.
What Makes Civil War More Likely?
“Civil war doesn’t happen when people are angry—it happens when they believe the system can no longer change peacefully and violence becomes a rational option.”
— Professor David Betz, Department of War Studies, King’s College London
Civil wars are most likely to erupt not simply when people are unhappy, but when three key conditions align:
Loss of Legitimacy – People no longer believe in the authority or fairness of the political system. When large segments of society feel alienated from formal institutions, they may begin to reject peaceful means of change.
Polarization and Fractured Identity – Civil wars often occur in deeply divided societies where identity politics, ideological extremism, or ethnic tensions replace shared national values. When dialogue breaks down and political opponents become existential enemies, peaceful compromise becomes less likely.
Opportunity and Capacity for Rebellion – A breakdown in state control (such as weakened law enforcement, failed governance, or contested territory) creates an opportunity for armed opposition. Without state capacity to maintain order, even small groups can exploit power vacuums.
Civil war is a process, not a single event. It’s usually preceded by escalating social unrest, rising authoritarian responses, and declining trust.
How It Works
The Civil War Risk Index is built on a comprehensive, multi-layered analysis of a wide range of data points. It doesn’t rely on a single indicator, but rather aggregates information from several key domains to provide a holistic view of internal stability.
These data sources include:
Social sentiment – Monitoring shifts in public mood, polarization, and trust through online discourse and media analysis.
Institutional integrity – Assessing signs of government dysfunction, corruption, erosion of rule of law, and breakdowns in public service.
Economic conditions – Tracking economic stressors such as unemployment, inflation, and inequality.
Demographic and cultural factors – Evaluating fragmentation across ethnic, religious, or ideological lines.
Crime and violence statistics – Capturing trends in organized crime, protest activity, and politically motivated violence.
By synthesizing these signals, the Index produces a daily-updated risk score, displayed through an intuitive speedometer-style gauge. This allows users to quickly assess the overall climate and risk level at a glance.
For those seeking deeper insight, we offer in-depth reports that unpack the specific risk factors driving the score. These reports are an invaluable resource for researchers, journalists, policymakers, and anyone looking to understand not just what the risk level is—but why it is what it is.
