In a world of rising political volatility, data-driven prediction models are changing the game.
At ConflictMeter, we’ve built a system that uses real-time data and AI to predict civil unrest—and we’re making these insights available to the general public for the first time.
Here’s how it works.
Step 1: Capturing the Signals of Instability
Unrest doesn’t appear out of nowhere. It builds over time, often in the form of subtle warning signs. Our system pulls from a wide range of sources to detect these early signals:
- Government indicators: Approval ratings, policy shifts, leadership disputes.
- Economic stressors: Food inflation, unemployment, wage stagnation, energy prices.
- Social media sentiment: Public mood and protest chatter on platforms like Twitter and Reddit.
- News cycles: Spikes in coverage about protests, strikes, or political instability.
- Historical trends: Patterns from past periods of unrest.
These inputs allow us to track a country’s social and political temperature in near real-time.
Step 2: Turning Noise into Insight
While there’s no shortage of data, what matters is making sense of it. Our AI models are designed to sift through the noise and detect emerging threats by identifying:
- Anomalous protest patterns.
- Sharp changes in public sentiment.
- Rising instability in leadership or policy signals.
- Calls to action spreading across digital platforms.
These models are trained not just to react to known events—but to flag what’s coming next.
Step 3: Scoring and Forecasting
Our system produces a daily unrest risk score for each country, driven by a combination of:
- Hidden Markov Models to detect shifts in regime stability.
- Anomaly detection algorithms to identify unusual developments.
- Sentiment analysis tools to gauge public frustration or optimism.
- Weighted scoring frameworks to benchmark risk levels against global norms.
Each score is updated daily and contextualized within a broader narrative of recent developments.
Step 4: Delivering Clarity—To Everyone
Here’s what truly sets us apart:
ConflictMeter is the first platform to make these kinds of civil unrest forecasts directly available to the general public.
Until now, these insights were confined to governments, intelligence agencies, or specialist research firms. Today, anyone—journalists, citizens, businesses, investors—can access daily country reports that include:
- Current risk level: Stable, Watch, Warning, or Crisis.
- Contributing factors: What’s driving the score.
- Recent events: Protests, policy changes, or economic shocks.
- Near-term forecast: What may unfold in the coming days or weeks.
Whether you’re tracking a region you care about, planning travel, monitoring geopolitical risk, or simply staying informed, our reports provide the clarity you need.
Why It Matters
Civil unrest isn’t unpredictable—it’s just been hard to see until it’s too late. But with the right data, patterns emerge.
By bringing these tools out of the hands of a select few and into public view, we believe everyone deserves a better understanding of the forces shaping our world.