ConflictMeter does not attempt to predict the date or probability of civil unrest. It measures something narrower and more inspectable: how closely current conditions in a country align with the conditions that Professor David Betz argues make large-scale civil unrest and internal political conflict more likely.
What the score represents
A higher ConflictMeter score means stronger alignment with that set of conditions. It does not mean, for example, that a score of 76 represents a 76% chance of civil war. ConflictMeter is an index of conditions, not a probability forecast.
The current production model is frozen as Betz v13.15. It combines structural Pressure, Activation and bounded economic/narrative accelerants. The structural model centres on three pillars: Downgrading / Status Reversal, Factionalism, and Loss of Faith in Normal Politics.
From theory to measurable indicators
Betz’s published essays argue that contemporary civil-conflict susceptibility in Western societies is connected to a combination of cultural fracture, economic stagnation, elite overreach, declining confidence in normal politics and the perception of status reversal or “downgrading”. ConflictMeter independently operationalises those theoretical claims using comparable international datasets.
The project uses source families including UN International Migrant Stock, V-Dem, the Democracy Perception Index and World Bank World Development Indicators, with additional Ipsos evidence in the separate Enhanced model where comparable survey coverage exists.
What ConflictMeter does not do
- It does not use social-media sentiment or protest chatter to issue daily forecasts.
- It does not assign Stable / Watch / Warning / Crisis probabilities.
- It does not infer missing data as zero merely to produce a score.
- It does not treat rank movement as proof that conditions objectively improved or deteriorated.
Why versioning matters
Source datasets are revised over time. ConflictMeter therefore distinguishes what was available at an historical cutoff (“Vintage”) from what later source releases now report for the same period (“Reconstructed”). The authorised 2025 Vintage is the first public headline movement baseline.
The current public release includes 81 Global FULL countries, with additional countries carrying current Core+Activation or historical component evidence.
ConflictMeter is an independent operationalisation of Betz’s published theories; the index itself is not produced or endorsed by Professor Betz.
Read the Methodology, inspect Data & Sources, or explore the current rankings.
Primary theory references: David Betz, “Civil War Comes to the West” (2023) and “Civil War Comes to the West, Part II: Strategic Realities” (2025).