Syria’s Fuel Price Protests: The Widest Unrest Since Assad’s Fall
A 40% diesel price increase triggered Syria’s broadest protests since December 2024. Here’s what sparked the unrest, how
September 28, 2026
ConflictMeter Research & Insights
Analysis built from the data
Research & Insights combines ConflictMeter’s proprietary cross-country dataset with country analysis and clear explainers. The aim is to investigate patterns in the index—not to turn every movement into a prediction.
Research questions from the data
ConflictMeter is most useful when it turns unusual movements and structural contrasts into questions we can investigate. These three current studies begin that programme of comparative analysis.
MOVEMENT REVIEW
El Salvador’s 48-Place Fall: What Changed?
The largest downward mover in the current list: how much of the change can plausibly be linked to Bukele’s security transformation?
MOVEMENT REVIEW
Lithuania’s 55-Place Rise: What Might Explain It?
Testing security mobilisation, inflation and energy pressure, political churn and source revision against the biggest upward mover.
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
Same Score, Different Structure: Finland vs Romania
Almost identical headline scores, but radically different Pressure, Activation, economic and narrative profiles.
Latest analysis
Latest research & explainers
The newest published ConflictMeter articles, ordered by publication date. Curated thematic sections remain below for readers who want to explore by subject.
The Escalation of the Civil War in Sudan: Prelude to Atrocity
The current crisis in Sudan traces its roots to the dramatic breakdown of relations between the Sudanese Armed
October 31, 2025
What Civil War Means
Civil war isn’t just “a lot of fighting.” It’s when people inside the same country—usually the government and
September 28, 2025
Can Civil War Happen In The UK?
Could the United Kingdom experience large-scale civil unrest or internal political conflict? ConflictMeter does not answer that question
June 30, 2025
How Does Civil Unrest Affect the Economy?
Civil unrest—whether it comes in the form of mass protests, strikes, political violence, or large-scale demonstrations—has far-reaching impacts
June 23, 2025
How Does Civil War Impact a Country?
Civil war is one of the most devastating crises a nation can experience. Unlike external wars, civil wars
May 31, 2025
ConflictMeter Watch
Short, data-led observations drawn from current rankings, 2025→current movement and component histories. Extreme values are reviewed before being promoted as stories.
MOVEMENT
Biggest movers since 2025
80 of 81 current Global FULL countries have an authorised 2025 Vintage comparison baseline. The Watch module separates rank movement from score movement and flags unusually large changes for human review.
MODEL VIEW
Pressure × Activation
The signature scatter distinguishes latent structural pressure from countries where mobilisation is already exceptionally high. It is designed to generate questions for further analysis rather than act as a probability map.
Country & event analysis
Country and event analysis connects developments on the ground with relevant ConflictMeter country data, while keeping background reporting separate from what the index itself measures.
COUNTRY / CONFLICT
The Escalation of the Civil War in Sudan: Prelude to Atrocity
Background analysis of the continuing Sudan conflict and its political-military context.
COUNTRY / UK
Can Civil War Happen In The UK?
An updated UK analysis using the current Betz v13.15 framework, with the headline score interpreted as an index of conditions rather than a forecast.
COUNTRY / MALI
Mali's Political Crisis Deepens
Country/event analysis on political turmoil and unrest in Mali.
Explainers
Evergreen explainers support search discovery and help readers interpret the subject without giving them false confidence about what ConflictMeter itself measures.
EXPLAINER
What Civil War Means
A plain-language explanation of what distinguishes civil war from unrest, protest and lower-intensity political violence.
EXPLAINER
How Does Civil Unrest Affect the Economy?
Background on economic consequences of unrest, distinct from ConflictMeter’s own economic-accelerant construction.
EXPLAINER
How Does Civil War Impact a Country?
An overview of the human, institutional and economic consequences of civil war.
Methodology & interpretation
For readers who want to understand how the index is constructed, our methodology and methodology explainer set out the Betz v13.15 framework, the source families, the historical rules and the limits of what the score means.