ConflictMeter Data & Sources
Where the data come from
ConflictMeter combines a small number of explicitly defined source families. This catalogue shows which sources enter the production index, which only enhance selected countries, and which remain contextual diagnostics.
Source inclusion is versioned. Missing data remain missing rather than being imputed as zero.
Production source map
The Global and Enhanced products share the same production architecture but differ in the evidence available inside the three structural pillars.
Current release, download & cite
The public release is versioned and reproducible. Download the current derived output, cite the model and snapshot, review source status, and see the interpretation rules that apply to every headline score.
Download current public output
The export contains the 81 current Global FULL country results and the six public metrics. It is a ConflictMeter output export; underlying third-party source datasets remain subject to their own terms and licences.
Suggested citation
ConflictMeter.org (2026), ConflictMeter Global Index, Betz v13.15, public snapshot 2026-09-28, https://conflictmeter.org/
For a specific country, cite the country-page URL as well. ConflictMeter is an independent operationalisation of Betz's published theories and is not produced or endorsed by Professor Betz.
Current release inputs
| Source family | Current production use | Release / status |
|---|---|---|
| UN International Migrant Stock | P1 Status reversal | 2024 edition |
| V-Dem | P2, Activation, Narrative | v16 production family |
| Democracy Perception Index | P3 Loss of faith | 2026 |
| World Bank WDI | Economic pressure | Frozen release used by snapshot |
| Ipsos Populism | Enhanced P1 | 2025 |
| Ipsos International Women's Day | Enhanced P2 | 2025 production baseline; 2026 candidate under comparability review |
| Ipsos Society is Broken | Enhanced P3 | 2025 |
New editions are detected and reviewed separately. A newly discovered source release does not automatically change production: comparability and transformation checks come first.
Release and reproducibility
Website export source manifest: 0f4ebb410405eed63d228b13e7a2d9ec1d47581bfa4b89c2c9f4ef23e57e61a6
The 2025 Vintage is the first authorised public headline movement baseline. Reconstructed historical values are kept separate from Vintage values so later source revisions do not silently rewrite the public baseline.
Interpretation FAQ
What does a higher score mean?
Stronger alignment with the conditions that the Betz framework associates with greater susceptibility to large-scale civil unrest and internal political conflict.
Is a score of 76 a 76% probability?
No. ConflictMeter is an index of conditions, not a probability forecast or timing prediction.
Why can a rank change?
A country's score can change, other countries can move, and the eligible ranking universe can change. ConflictMeter therefore shows the comparison-universe size alongside movement.
What does FULL mean?
Global FULL means the required current inputs for a headline Global score are available. Core+Activation means important current components exist but a required headline input is missing, so no Global FULL score is inferred.
What is Enhanced?
Enhanced uses additional recent direct-survey evidence where comparable multinational coverage exists. It has its own smaller ranking universe and is not mixed into the Global ranking.
What are Vintage and Reconstructed values?
Vintage uses the source release available at the historical cutoff. Reconstructed uses later revised source data for the same period. They are kept separate rather than silently substituted.
Release history & source freshness
What is current, what is historical, and what is under review
ConflictMeter separates public releases, historical baselines and newly detected source editions. A newer upstream file does not change the published index until comparability and transformation checks pass.
Release history
| Release | Public role |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 Betz v13.15 | Current public snapshot and ranking universe. |
| 2025 Vintage | Authorised movement baseline using evidence available at the historical cutoff. |
| 2025 Reconstructed | Separate analytical history using later revised source data; not silently substituted for Vintage. |
| 2021–2024 | Component history only. No authorised headline ConflictMeter score or rank. |
Source-watch state
Automated source watching is commissioned. A changed upstream release becomes a candidate for review rather than a production update.
Current known review item: Ipsos International Women's Day 2026 remains under comparability review; the verified 2025 production baseline remains active.
This separation prevents an upstream revision from silently rewriting current or historical ConflictMeter results.
Report a data or source issueScored global source families
SCORED
UN International Migrant Stock
Role: Global demographic/status-change proxy
Used for: P1 Downgrading / Status Reversal
ConflictMeter uses the DEM02V demographic-change-velocity percentile. Historical reproduction uses genuine source vintages rather than today’s database projected backwards.
SCORED
V-Dem v16
Role: Annual comparative political/social measures
Used for: P2 Factionalism, Activation, Narrative fragmentation
Political polarisation supplies the Global factionalism channel; general mobilisation supplies Activation; online-media fractionalisation supplies Narrative. V-Dem revisions are tracked through Vintage/Reconstructed history.
SCORED
Democracy Perception Index 2026
Role: Cross-national public-perception evidence
Used for: P3 Loss of Faith in Normal Politics
The Global P3 channel uses comparable current DPI evidence for perceived democratic/institutional performance. Historical headline authorization depends on direct comparability of the construct.
SCORED
World Bank World Development Indicators
Role: Macroeconomic time series
Used for: Economic pressure
GDP-per-capita growth and real household-consumption-per-capita growth shortfalls feed the zero-preserving economic accelerant. Improvements are clipped to zero pressure; CPI inflation is context-only.
Enhanced direct-survey evidence
Enhanced does not replace the Global model. It adds recent direct evidence to the same structural concepts where comparable multinational coverage exists, creating a separate ranking universe.
ENHANCED
Ipsos Populism Report 2025
Role: Recent subjective status/nativism evidence
Used for: Enhanced P1
The nativism/status evidence supplements the global demographic proxy. It is not treated as interchangeable with direct inter-group tension.
ENHANCED
Ipsos International Women's Day 2025
Role: Recent direct identity-group tension evidence
Used for: Enhanced P2
Immigrant/native-born tension and inter-ethnic tension provide the direct group-fracture family used in Enhanced Factionalism.
ENHANCED
Ipsos Society is Broken Index 2025
Role: Published public-system-disaffection index
Used for: Enhanced P3
The published index is used directly for Loss of Faith rather than rebuilding a custom composite from selected questions.
ENHANCED
Survey temporalisation
Role: Release-bound evidence selection
Used for: Historical Enhanced components
Historical survey values are selected by release date at each cutoff. Where no newer comparable wave exists, an older observation may be explicitly carried forward—not relabelled as a new observation.
Context and diagnostics — not headline inputs
ConflictMeter deliberately leaves several plausible indicators outside the primary headline when they overlap with scored constructs, are directionally ambiguous, or are too assumption-sensitive to carry universal weight.
CONTEXT
World Bank WGI
Role: Institutional/state-capacity context
Used for: Government Effectiveness, state-erosion and autocratic suppression diagnostics
There is no generic democratic WGI safety brake in the primary Gross score. Autocratic suppression capacity is a secondary Net25 sensitivity only.
CONTEXT
EPR power-status transitions
Role: Objective political-power context
Used for: Status-change corroboration
EPR is not used as a substitute for Betz-style perceived downgrading/status reversal because actual power status and perceived status reversal are not the same construct.
CONTEXT
CPI inflation
Role: Economic context
Used for: Inflation shock context
Inflation is tracked but is not part of the frozen economic accelerant, which is based on growth shortfalls.
CONTEXT
Party hate speech / other fracture diagnostics
Role: Corroborating narrative/factional context
Used for: Context only
Party hate speech overlaps substantially with Factionalism and therefore remains outside the separate Narrative accelerant.
Vintage, Reconstructed and source revision
Many official/comparative datasets revise historical observations after initial release. ConflictMeter treats that as information rather than noise.
METHOD
Vintage
Role: What could have been known then
Used for: Historical reconstruction
Uses the source release available by the historical cutoff. The frozen 2025 Vintage headline is the public baseline for forward score/rank movement.
METHOD
Reconstructed
Role: What today’s source database now reports
Used for: Revision analysis
Uses later revised historical data for the same year. It is kept analytically separate and is never silently substituted into the public movement baseline.
METHOD
Revision diagnostics
Role: Measure source-history instability
Used for: Current Revision Sensitivity / Historical Revision Exposure
These diagnostics describe source revision behaviour. They do not alter the ConflictMeter score and are not confidence/uncertainty scores.
METHOD
Freeze and hashes
Role: Reproducibility control
Used for: Frozen outputs / manifests
Production snapshots and historical products are hashed and verified. Any future methodology change requires a new model version rather than silent mutation.
Data licensing and commercial use
ConflictMeter’s public index, reports and analytical workflow can be sold as a product, but raw/bulk redistribution rights for source-derived data are a separate question. Before a public API or broad data-redistribution licence is offered, source-by-source licensing obligations will be reviewed explicitly.
This distinction is why the current commercial plan separates analysis and workflow access from raw/bulk data redistribution.
From sources to the model
Source choice, temporalisation and comparability rules sit upstream of every country page and chart. The website consumes validated export files; WordPress does not recalculate the model.