ConflictMeter Data & Charts

Explore the ConflictMeter data

What the score measures: ConflictMeter measures how closely current conditions align with the conditions that Professor David Betz argues make large-scale civil unrest and internal political conflict more likely. Higher scores indicate stronger alignment, not a percentage probability or a prediction. Explore current rankings, the full 96-country Pressure × Activation universe, and movement from the authorised 2025 Vintage baseline.

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Current public export · 81 Global FULL countries · snapshot 2026-09-28. Citation, source and release notes.

Current Global leaders

The top ten current Global FULL scores.

1
79.00
2
78.64
3
78.62
5
77.07
6
76.70
7
76.48
8
76.18
10
75.94
Display bands: 75–100 50–<75 0–<50 Presentation convention only — not calibrated probability bands.

Pressure × Activation

96 countries with valid current Pressure and Activation. Grey points have Core+Activation evidence but no FULL Global score.

PRESSURE →ACTIVATION → Angola: Pressure 32.47, Activation 54.17, Global 46.48, rank 54Argentina: Pressure 53.19, Activation 84.44, Global 68.55, rank 16Australia: Pressure 44.88, Activation 50.56, Global 49.99, rank 50Austria: Pressure 59.47, Activation 37.78, Global 49.03, rank 51Belgium: Pressure 55.31, Activation 68.61, Global 61.98, rank 26Bangladesh: Pressure 66.71, Activation 91.39, Global 79.00, rank 1Belarus: Pressure 66.82, Activation 86.39, Global 78.62, rank 3Bolivia: Pressure 60.79, Activation 90.56, Global 75.59, rank 11Brazil: Pressure 68.31, Activation 46.94, Global 56.77, rank 32Canada: Pressure 53.06, Activation 31.11, Global 42.42, rank 61Switzerland: Pressure 41.18, Activation 61.94, Global 51.27, rank 46Chile: Pressure 35.44, Activation 27.50, Global 34.93, rank 69China: Pressure 44.59, Activation 36.94, Global 45.21, rank 57Cote d'Ivoire: Pressure 28.03, Activation 94.17, Global 53.60, rank 42Cameroon: Pressure 55.68, Activation 83.89, Global 70.00, rank 15Congo, Rep.: Pressure 16.58, Activation 19.17, Global 22.40, rank 79Colombia: Pressure 71.23, Activation 79.72, Global 75.94, rank 10Costa Rica: Pressure 59.67, Activation 41.11, Global 50.25, rank 49Germany: Pressure 64.18, Activation 65.83, Global 66.93, rank 19Denmark: Pressure 45.65, Activation 40.28, Global 44.06, rank 58Dominican Republic: Pressure 45.09, Activation 19.72, Global 33.19, rank 72Algeria: Pressure 31.27, Activation 19.44, Global 26.24, rank 77Ecuador: Pressure 46.64, Activation 63.06, Global 55.48, rank 36Egypt, Arab Rep.: Pressure 32.91, Activation 39.44, Global 37.22, rank 66Spain: Pressure 63.61, Activation 40.00, Global 52.20, rank 43Ethiopia: Pressure 55.09, Activation 78.89, no Global FULL scoreFinland: Pressure 45.75, Activation 63.06, Global 55.46, rank 38France: Pressure 69.52, Activation 73.06, Global 71.89, rank 13United Kingdom: Pressure 58.35, Activation 97.36, Global 76.17, rank 9Georgia: Pressure 53.20, Activation 90.56, no Global FULL scoreGhana: Pressure 32.58, Activation 82.22, Global 54.14, rank 40Greece: Pressure 44.16, Activation 55.28, Global 51.54, rank 45Guatemala: Pressure 54.28, Activation 28.89, Global 42.33, rank 62Honduras: Pressure 51.82, Activation 63.61, Global 58.95, rank 28Hungary: Pressure 61.50, Activation 92.78, Global 77.07, rank 5Indonesia: Pressure 39.61, Activation 61.67, Global 50.43, rank 48India: Pressure 40.57, Activation 53.61, Global 48.67, rank 52Ireland: Pressure 33.66, Activation 25.28, Global 30.60, rank 75Iraq: Pressure 27.21, Activation 43.33, Global 38.54, rank 64Israel: Pressure 16.59, Activation 95.83, Global 43.20, rank 60Italy: Pressure 59.78, Activation 73.89, Global 67.62, rank 17Jamaica: Pressure 44.69, Activation 15.56, no Global FULL scoreJordan: Pressure 38.69, Activation 61.11, no Global FULL scoreJapan: Pressure 33.72, Activation 16.11, Global 24.10, rank 78Kazakhstan: Pressure 35.74, Activation 22.50, Global 33.11, rank 73Kenya: Pressure 36.14, Activation 90.28, Global 58.58, rank 29Kyrgyz Republic: Pressure 16.53, Activation 17.50, no Global FULL scoreKorea, Rep.: Pressure 58.38, Activation 96.11, Global 76.48, rank 7Kuwait: Pressure 14.32, Activation 26.67, no Global FULL scoreLebanon: Pressure 12.77, Activation 48.06, Global 35.56, rank 67Libya: Pressure 53.85, Activation 41.94, no Global FULL scoreSri Lanka: Pressure 28.03, Activation 39.72, no Global FULL scoreLithuania: Pressure 59.58, Activation 87.08, Global 75.24, rank 12Morocco: Pressure 53.63, Activation 83.89, Global 67.49, rank 18Moldova: Pressure 75.45, Activation 51.67, Global 66.27, rank 21Mexico: Pressure 67.00, Activation 33.89, Global 51.15, rank 47Malaysia: Pressure 33.73, Activation 26.94, Global 32.36, rank 74Namibia: Pressure 30.92, Activation 91.39, Global 55.19, rank 39Nigeria: Pressure 47.79, Activation 44.86, no Global FULL scoreNicaragua: Pressure 58.66, Activation 13.33, Global 35.11, rank 68Netherlands: Pressure 62.29, Activation 98.33, Global 78.64, rank 2Norway: Pressure 32.31, Activation 31.94, Global 33.81, rank 70New Zealand: Pressure 49.95, Activation 65.00, Global 61.34, rank 27Oman: Pressure 16.11, Activation 14.17, Global 20.23, rank 80Pakistan: Pressure 64.87, Activation 47.78, Global 57.36, rank 31Panama: Pressure 49.60, Activation 76.67, Global 63.00, rank 24Peru: Pressure 77.26, Activation 71.94, Global 76.70, rank 6Philippines: Pressure 49.62, Activation 85.56, Global 66.29, rank 20Poland: Pressure 75.83, Activation 44.86, Global 62.16, rank 25Portugal: Pressure 60.10, Activation 81.94, Global 70.45, rank 14Paraguay: Pressure 38.86, Activation 42.36, Global 43.65, rank 59West Bank and Gaza: Pressure 30.50, Activation 46.39, Global 45.42, rank 56Romania: Pressure 77.81, Activation 32.78, Global 55.47, rank 37Russian Federation: Pressure 60.71, Activation 45.83, Global 54.02, rank 41Saudi Arabia: Pressure 10.30, Activation 13.89, Global 15.91, rank 81Senegal: Pressure 38.90, Activation 34.17, Global 37.89, rank 65Singapore: Pressure 59.21, Activation 33.06, Global 45.89, rank 55El Salvador: Pressure 52.35, Activation 18.61, Global 33.52, rank 71Serbia: Pressure 56.48, Activation 98.06, Global 76.18, rank 8Sweden: Pressure 51.91, Activation 58.33, Global 56.23, rank 34Syrian Arab Republic: Pressure 12.60, Activation 49.44, no Global FULL scoreThailand: Pressure 50.02, Activation 50.56, Global 52.08, rank 44Tunisia: Pressure 49.00, Activation 79.44, Global 65.95, rank 23Turkiye: Pressure 66.80, Activation 65.00, Global 66.14, rank 22Tanzania: Pressure 50.22, Activation 55.83, Global 55.51, rank 35Uganda: Pressure 52.31, Activation 60.28, Global 58.48, rank 30Ukraine: Pressure 66.21, Activation 38.33, Global 56.58, rank 33Uruguay: Pressure 43.59, Activation 31.94, no Global FULL scoreUnited States: Pressure 66.07, Activation 88.61, Global 78.17, rank 4Uzbekistan: Pressure 25.42, Activation 51.39, no Global FULL scoreVenezuela, RB: Pressure 33.68, Activation 40.28, no Global FULL scoreViet Nam: Pressure 50.69, Activation 40.83, Global 48.15, rank 53Yemen, Rep.: Pressure 44.04, Activation 77.78, no Global FULL scoreSouth Africa: Pressure 26.23, Activation 45.56, Global 38.85, rank 63Zambia: Pressure 43.27, Activation 35.00, no Global FULL scoreZimbabwe: Pressure 33.10, Activation 18.89, Global 30.18, rank 76● UK highlighted
● 75–100● 50–<75● 0–<50● Core+Activation only

Current Global score distribution

How the 81 current Global FULL countries are distributed across the 0–100 index. This shows the shape of the current ranked universe rather than only its leaders.

0
0–<10
1
10–<20
4
20–<30
14
30–<40
13
40–<50
22
50–<60
12
60–<70
15
70–<80
0
80–<90
0
90–100
81 current Global FULL countriesMedian: 54.0210-point intervals are descriptive bins, not probability or risk categories.

World Map

Explore the index geographically

Open the full-screen ConflictMeter World Map to compare the current Global index, Pressure and Activation across countries. Grey countries have no value in the selected public metric.

Open World Map

Biggest movers since 2025

Rank movement across the 80 comparable Global FULL countries.

Toward rank 1
+26
Away from rank 1
-36
Direction refers to movement in ranking position, not “better” or “worse” conditions. Lithuania and El Salvador remain flagged for analytical review before editorial use.
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