ConflictMeter Rankings

Compare current country positions

What the score measures: countries are ranked by how closely current conditions align with the conditions that Professor David Betz argues make large-scale civil unrest and internal political conflict more likely. A higher score means stronger alignment with those conditions; it is not a percentage probability or a prediction that conflict will occur. The current Global FULL universe contains 81 countries, with an authorised 2025 Vintage movement baseline for 80 of them.

Current production coverage

81

Global FULL

96

Pressure + Activation

30

Enhanced FULL

Global ranking table

Display bands: 75–100 50–<75 0–<50 Presentation convention only — not calibrated probability bands.
Rank
Country
Score
Since 2025
Pressure
Activation
Coverage
1
Bangladesh
South Asia
79.00
→ 0
1/80 → 1/81
score -5.31
66.71
91.39
FULL
2
Netherlands
Europe & Central Asia
78.64
↑ 1
3/80 → 2/81
score +1.67
62.29
98.33
FULL
3
Belarus
Europe & Central Asia
78.62
↑ 7
10/80 → 3/81
score +7.50
66.82
86.39
FULL
4
United States
North America
78.17
↑ 7
11/80 → 4/81
score +7.13
66.07
88.61
FULL
5
Hungary
Europe & Central Asia
77.07
↑ 26
31/80 → 5/81
score +19.29
61.50
92.78
FULL
6
Peru
Latin America & Caribbean
76.70
↑ 20
26/80 → 6/81
score +17.28
77.26
71.94
FULL
7
Korea, Rep.
East Asia & Pacific
76.48
→ 0
7/80 → 7/81
score +1.66
58.38
96.11
FULL
8
Serbia
Europe & Central Asia
76.18
↑ 5
13/80 → 8/81
score +5.65
56.48
98.06
FULL
9
United Kingdom
Europe & Central Asia
76.17
↓ 5
4/80 → 9/81
score -0.51
58.35
97.36
FULL
10
Colombia
Latin America & Caribbean
75.94
↑ 10
20/80 → 10/81
score +13.13
71.23
79.72
FULL
11
Bolivia
Latin America & Caribbean
75.59
↓ 5
6/80 → 11/81
score +0.55
60.79
90.56
FULL
12
Lithuania
Europe & Central Asia
75.24
↑ 55
67/80 → 12/81
score +36.14
59.58
87.08
FULL
13
France
Europe & Central Asia
71.89
↑ 12
25/80 → 13/81
score +11.55
69.52
73.06
FULL
14
Portugal
Europe & Central Asia
70.45
↑ 3
17/80 → 14/81
score +4.48
60.10
81.94
FULL
15
Cameroon
Sub-Saharan Africa
70.00
↑ 28
43/80 → 15/81
score +16.89
55.68
83.89
FULL
16
Argentina
Latin America & Caribbean
68.55
→ 0
16/80 → 16/81
score +2.39
53.19
84.44
FULL
17
Italy
Europe & Central Asia
67.62
↑ 19
36/80 → 17/81
score +11.85
59.78
73.89
FULL
18
Morocco
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
67.49
↑ 10
28/80 → 18/81
score +8.47
53.63
83.89
FULL
19
Germany
Europe & Central Asia
66.93
↓ 14
5/80 → 19/81
score -9.62
64.18
65.83
FULL
20
Philippines
East Asia & Pacific
66.29
↑ 29
49/80 → 20/81
score +16.19
49.62
85.56
FULL
21
Moldova
Europe & Central Asia
66.27
↓ 19
2/80 → 21/81
score -11.47
75.45
51.67
FULL
22
Turkiye
Europe & Central Asia
66.14
↑ 17
39/80 → 22/81
score +10.97
66.80
65.00
FULL
23
Tunisia
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
65.95
↑ 4
27/80 → 23/81
score +6.60
49.00
79.44
FULL
24
Panama
Latin America & Caribbean
63.00
↓ 9
15/80 → 24/81
score -3.41
49.60
76.67
FULL
25
Poland
Europe & Central Asia
62.16
↓ 11
14/80 → 25/81
score -7.02
75.83
44.86
FULL
26
Belgium
Europe & Central Asia
61.98
↑ 14
40/80 → 26/81
score +6.87
55.31
68.61
FULL
27
New Zealand
East Asia & Pacific
61.34
↓ 9
18/80 → 27/81
score -2.91
49.95
65.00
FULL
28
Honduras
Latin America & Caribbean
58.95
↓ 4
24/80 → 28/81
score -2.11
51.82
63.61
FULL
29
Kenya
Sub-Saharan Africa
58.58
↑ 6
35/80 → 29/81
score +2.39
36.14
90.28
FULL
30
Uganda
Sub-Saharan Africa
58.48
↑ 17
47/80 → 30/81
score +7.24
52.31
60.28
FULL
31
Pakistan
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
57.36
↓ 19
12/80 → 31/81
score -13.19
64.87
47.78
FULL
32
Brazil
Latin America & Caribbean
56.77
↑ 1
33/80 → 32/81
score -0.46
68.31
46.94
FULL
33
Ukraine
Europe & Central Asia
56.58
↑ 20
53/80 → 33/81
score +7.83
66.21
38.33
FULL
34
Sweden
Europe & Central Asia
56.23
↓ 2
32/80 → 34/81
score -1.18
51.91
58.33
FULL
35
Tanzania
Sub-Saharan Africa
55.51
↑ 13
48/80 → 35/81
score +5.20
50.22
55.83
FULL
36
Ecuador
Latin America & Caribbean
55.48
↑ 16
52/80 → 36/81
score +5.68
46.64
63.06
FULL
37
Romania
Europe & Central Asia
55.47
↓ 29
8/80 → 37/81
score -18.66
77.81
32.78
FULL
38
Finland
Europe & Central Asia
55.46
↓ 16
22/80 → 38/81
score -5.94
45.75
63.06
FULL
39
Namibia
Sub-Saharan Africa
55.19
↑ 16
55/80 → 39/81
score +7.66
30.92
91.39
FULL
40
Ghana
Sub-Saharan Africa
54.14
↓ 19
21/80 → 40/81
score -8.11
32.58
82.22
FULL
41
Russian Federation
Europe & Central Asia
54.02
↓ 32
9/80 → 41/81
score -17.27
60.71
45.83
FULL
42
Cote d'Ivoire
Sub-Saharan Africa
53.60
↑ 18
60/80 → 42/81
score +8.88
28.03
94.17
FULL
43
Spain
Europe & Central Asia
52.20
↓ 2
41/80 → 43/81
score -2.56
63.61
40.00
FULL
44
Thailand
East Asia & Pacific
52.08
↑ 25
69/80 → 44/81
score +15.79
50.02
50.56
FULL
45
Greece
Europe & Central Asia
51.54
↑ 9
54/80 → 45/81
score +3.67
44.16
55.28
FULL
46
Switzerland
Europe & Central Asia
51.27
↓ 8
38/80 → 46/81
score -3.95
41.18
61.94
FULL
47
Mexico
Latin America & Caribbean
51.15
↓ 10
37/80 → 47/81
score -4.19
67.00
33.89
FULL
48
Indonesia
East Asia & Pacific
50.43
↑ 2
50/80 → 48/81
score +0.53
39.61
61.67
FULL
49
Costa Rica
Latin America & Caribbean
50.25
↓ 30
19/80 → 49/81
score -13.72
59.67
41.11
FULL
50
Australia
East Asia & Pacific
49.99
↑ 6
56/80 → 50/81
score +3.32
44.88
50.56
FULL
51
Austria
Europe & Central Asia
49.03
↓ 7
44/80 → 51/81
score -3.67
59.47
37.78
FULL
52
India
South Asia
48.67
↓ 6
46/80 → 52/81
score -2.75
40.57
53.61
FULL
53
Viet Nam
East Asia & Pacific
48.15
↑ 8
61/80 → 53/81
score +4.12
50.69
40.83
FULL
54
Angola
Sub-Saharan Africa
46.48
↑ 3
57/80 → 54/81
score +0.24
32.47
54.17
FULL
55
Singapore
East Asia & Pacific
45.89
↑ 9
64/80 → 55/81
score +4.11
59.21
33.06
FULL
56
West Bank and Gaza
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
45.42
↓ 14
42/80 → 56/81
score -9.13
30.50
46.39
FULL
57
China
East Asia & Pacific
45.21
↑ 1
58/80 → 57/81
score -0.14
44.59
36.94
FULL
58
Denmark
Europe & Central Asia
44.06
↑ 4
62/80 → 58/81
score +1.11
45.65
40.28
FULL
59
Paraguay
Latin America & Caribbean
43.65
↓ 8
51/80 → 59/81
score -6.18
38.86
42.36
FULL
60
Israel
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
43.20
↑ 3
63/80 → 60/81
score +0.85
16.59
95.83
FULL
61
Canada
North America
42.42
↓ 27
34/80 → 61/81
score -14.59
53.06
31.11
FULL
62
Guatemala
Latin America & Caribbean
42.33
↓ 32
30/80 → 62/81
score -16.02
54.28
28.89
FULL
63
South Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
38.85
↑ 5
68/80 → 63/81
score +0.25
26.23
45.56
FULL
64
Iraq
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
38.54
↓ 19
45/80 → 64/81
score -13.89
27.21
43.33
FULL
65
Senegal
Sub-Saharan Africa
37.89
↓ 36
29/80 → 65/81
score -20.50
38.90
34.17
FULL
66
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
37.22
↑ 9
75/80 → 66/81
score +8.20
32.91
39.44
FULL
67
Lebanon
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
35.56
↑ 7
74/80 → 67/81
score +5.75
12.77
48.06
FULL
68
Nicaragua
Latin America & Caribbean
35.11
↑ 2
70/80 → 68/81
score +0.31
58.66
13.33
FULL
69
Chile
Latin America & Caribbean
34.93
↓ 10
59/80 → 69/81
score -9.90
35.44
27.50
FULL
70
Norway
Europe & Central Asia
33.81
↑ 2
72/80 → 70/81
score +3.28
32.31
31.94
FULL
71
El Salvador
Latin America & Caribbean
33.52
↓ 48
23/80 → 71/81
score -27.59
52.35
18.61
FULL
72
Dominican Republic
Latin America & Caribbean
33.19
↓ 6
66/80 → 72/81
score -7.64
45.09
19.72
FULL
73
Kazakhstan
Europe & Central Asia
33.11
↓ 8
65/80 → 73/81
score -8.29
35.74
22.50
FULL
74
Malaysia
East Asia & Pacific
32.36
↓ 1
73/80 → 74/81
score +2.17
33.73
26.94
FULL
75
Ireland
Europe & Central Asia
30.60
↓ 4
71/80 → 75/81
score -0.15
33.66
25.28
FULL
76
Zimbabwe
Sub-Saharan Africa
30.18
NEW
NO_2025_BASELINE
33.10
18.89
FULL
77
Algeria
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
26.24
↓ 1
76/80 → 77/81
score -1.22
31.27
19.44
FULL
78
Japan
East Asia & Pacific
24.10
→ 0
78/80 → 78/81
score -0.54
33.72
16.11
FULL
79
Congo, Rep.
Sub-Saharan Africa
22.40
↓ 2
77/80 → 79/81
score -2.33
16.58
19.17
FULL
80
Oman
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
20.23
↓ 1
79/80 → 80/81
score -0.80
16.11
14.17
FULL
81
Saudi Arabia
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
15.91
↓ 1
80/80 → 81/81
score +2.25
10.30
13.89
FULL

Movement: ↑ means toward rank 1; ↓ means away from rank 1. It does not mean conditions improved or worsened. Score delta shows movement in the index itself. All comparable Global baselines are 2025 Vintage, with the universe change 80 → 81 retained.

ConflictMeter Watch

Current leaders and the largest movements since the authorised 2025 Vintage baseline.

Current top 10

1
Bangladesh
79.00
2
Netherlands
78.64
3
Belarus
78.62
4
United States
78.17
5
Hungary
77.07
6
Peru
76.70
7
Korea, Rep.
76.48
8
Serbia
76.18
9
United Kingdom
76.17
10
Colombia
75.94

Biggest rank movers

Toward rank 1
Lithuania
+55
Philippines
+29
Cameroon
+28
Hungary
+26
Thailand
+25
Away from rank 1
El Salvador
-48
Senegal
-36
Guatemala
-32
Russian Federation
-32
Costa Rica
-30
Direction refers to movement in ranking position, not “better” or “worse” conditions. Lithuania and El Salvador remain flagged for analytical review before editorial use.
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