ConflictMeter Rankings
Compare country risk scores and rankings
For readers comparing a country risk ranking or country risk score, ConflictMeter provides a narrower measure focused specifically on internal-conflict conditions. Countries are ranked by how closely current conditions align with the conditions that Professor David Betz argues make large-scale civil unrest and internal political conflict more likely. A higher score means stronger alignment with those conditions; it is not a percentage probability, a generic sovereign-risk rating, or a prediction that conflict will occur. The current Global FULL universe contains 81 countries, with an authorised 2025 Vintage movement baseline for 80 of them.
Current production coverage
81
Global FULL
96
Pressure + Activation
30
Enhanced FULL
ConflictMeter country risk ranking table
Display bands:
75–100
50–<75
0–<50
Presentation convention only — not calibrated probability bands.
Rank
Country
Score
Since 2025
Pressure
Activation
Coverage
18
Morocco
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
67.49
↑ 10
28/80 → 18/81
score +8.47
score +8.47
53.63
83.89
FULL
23
Tunisia
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
65.95
↑ 4
27/80 → 23/81
score +6.60
score +6.60
49.00
79.44
FULL
31
Pakistan
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
57.36
↓ 19
12/80 → 31/81
score -13.19
score -13.19
64.87
47.78
FULL
56
West Bank and Gaza
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
45.42
↓ 14
42/80 → 56/81
score -9.13
score -9.13
30.50
46.39
FULL
60
Israel
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
43.20
↑ 3
63/80 → 60/81
score +0.85
score +0.85
16.59
95.83
FULL
64
Iraq
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
38.54
↓ 19
45/80 → 64/81
score -13.89
score -13.89
27.21
43.33
FULL
66
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
37.22
↑ 9
75/80 → 66/81
score +8.20
score +8.20
32.91
39.44
FULL
67
Lebanon
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
35.56
↑ 7
74/80 → 67/81
score +5.75
score +5.75
12.77
48.06
FULL
77
Algeria
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
26.24
↓ 1
76/80 → 77/81
score -1.22
score -1.22
31.27
19.44
FULL
80
Oman
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
20.23
↓ 1
79/80 → 80/81
score -0.80
score -0.80
16.11
14.17
FULL
81
Saudi Arabia
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan
15.91
↓ 1
80/80 → 81/81
score +2.25
score +2.25
10.30
13.89
FULL
Movement: ↑ means toward rank 1; ↓ means away from rank 1. It does not mean conditions improved or worsened. Score delta shows movement in the index itself. All comparable Global baselines are 2025 Vintage, with the universe change 80 → 81 retained.
ConflictMeter Watch
Current leaders and the largest movements since the authorised 2025 Vintage baseline.
Current top 10
1
Bangladesh
79.00
2
Netherlands
78.64
3
Belarus
78.62
4
United States
78.17
5
Hungary
77.07
6
Peru
76.70
7
Korea, Rep.
76.48
8
Serbia
76.18
9
United Kingdom
76.17
10
Colombia
75.94
Biggest rank movers
Toward rank 1
Lithuania
+55
Philippines
+29
Cameroon
+28
Hungary
+26
Thailand
+25
Away from rank 1
El Salvador
-48
Senegal
-36
Guatemala
-32
Russian Federation
-32
Costa Rica
-30
Direction refers to movement in ranking position, not “better” or “worse” conditions. Lithuania and El Salvador remain flagged for analytical review before editorial use.